Space Weather Forecasting with Interplanetary Scintillation Data (6-hour updates)

Most of these kinematic model analyses, in older formats using ISEE IPS data, can be found at: http://ips.ucsd.edu. A different kinematic model version is operated at the Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC). The analyses used to drive ENLIL in near real time can be found at George Mason University, and at the KSWC. An archive of the IPS analyses can be found at: Real-Time Data (anonymous ftp images and data). These analyses can be compared with the same type analyses present in http://ips.ucsd.edu/high_resolution_predictions. They are provided by lines of sight that extend to the distance of 5 AU, and because of this, the volumetric analyses and time series can be slightly different from those of the other 3-D reconstructions. In addition, in these analyses the 3-D reconstruction are "stabilized" and the time series compared with SOHO CELIAS in-situ plasma measurements (rather than ACE data from NOAA). This can provide considerably different in-situ plasma values and comparisons at Earth.

Density 1.8AU

Earth Time Series

Density 5.8AU

Radial Velocity 1.8AU

Earth Time Series

Radial Velocity 5.8AU

Volumetric cuts:

Planar cuts along the ecliptic: These show the density (normalized to 1 AU) and velocity, as planar cuts along the ecliptic within 3 hours of the current time. The Sun is in the center; Earth is shown in its orbit around the Sun. The inner planets and their orbits, Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo, and Solar Orbiter locations are shown on the left. The same is shown on the right but to the orbit of Jupiter, and Jupiter is also shown on its orbit. The maps are derived from the UCSD kinematic tomographic time-dependent model of the solar wind that is fit to interplanetary scintillation (IPS) g-levels and velocities obtained daily from ISEE, Japan. The data fit is updated every six hours

Planar cuts at the Earth's meridian: These show the density (normalized to 1 AU) and velocity as planar cuts along at the Earth's meridian at the same time as the ecliptic cuts. The Sun is in the center; Earth is shown on its orbit (a straight line) to the right of the image. The inner planets, Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo, and Solar Orbiter locations are shown.

Time-Series and Correlations:

Times series plots: Near-Earth solar wind parameters density and radial velocity derived from the time-dependent tomography model (dashed curves) shown in comparison with SOHO CELIAS spacecraft velocity and density (solid curves). A vertical dashed line indicated the GMT run time of the tomography program that is provided above the time series. The Pearson's "R" correlation between the model and observed values of each parameter are shown up to the time there are no more spacecraft data available. The display is updated every six hours at the same time as the volumetric cuts. The prediction of the future parameter values at Earth begins at the location of the vertical dashed line where the observed values end.